2020 NBA Draft Busts?

Rookies who are not Performing up to Expectations

After each annual draft in every major sport, rookies are under a microscope. If they do not perform up to the expectations that have been placed upon them, they are labeled busts. Some are unfortunately labeled as busts before they reach their full potential. There have been plenty of athletes who may not perform very well in their first 2 or 3 seasons, but once they get a few seasons under their belt, they break out and show their true potential either with the team that drafted them or with another team around the league.

The 2020 NBA Draft was widely regarded as inferior to previous draft classes. The bust potential from this class of draftees is perceived as a lot higher than previous years. Throughout the first month and a half of the NBA season, we have seen the 2020 Rookie class in action and have been able to form early opinions on which players look like future stars in the league and those who may fall well short of their pre-draft expectations.

I made an article about this topic after the first week of the NBA regular season. You can check that out here. I wanted to revisit now that we are a month in to see if any of the rookies I wrote about previously have turned it around.

Obi Toppin, New York Knicks

Obi Toppin was the oldest player to come out of the 2020 NBA Draft at 22 years old. This was a major concern for teams when deciding whether or not to draft him. The New York Knicks pounced on the opportunity when he fell a little bit compared to his draft projection and landed at #8 overall. So far, Toppin has missed some games due to injury and is in a tough situation playing for Tom Thibodeau who notoriously does not like to give rookies a ton of minutes.

I wrote about Obi being a potential bust back in early January, and he still has yet to show signs of becoming a star in the NBA. Early comparisons were Blake Griffin due to his freakish athleticism, but it seems like that is all Obi Toppin has. He can jump out of the gym, but really does not do much other than that. He had so much hype coming out of Dayton as he was absolutely bullying his college opponents. Now that he is in the NBA, he is learning quickly that he is no longer the biggest, fastest or strongest player on the court.

Obi is averaging an underwhelming 4.6 PPG and 2.6 RPG. These stats are well below his expectations. Especially with his age and maturity, he was expected to be the most NBA-ready prospect. It is clear early into his career that he has a lot to figure out if he wants to avoid being labeled a bust.

Isaac Okoro, Cleveland Cavaliers

Okoro impressed in the NBA’s pre-season. He caught many people by surprise with his efficient shooting and ability to use his elite athleticism on both sides of the ball. Unfortunately for Okoro and the Cavaliers, he has not had the same success in the regular season that he did in the pre-season. Okoro is only averaging 8.3 PPG, 2.3 RPG, and 2.1 APG. Not horrible stats for a guy who did not come in with high expectations on offense, but after his breakout performance in the pre-season, he was expected to carry that momentum into the real deal.

In no way am I labeling Okoro as a bust, but he does deserve to be on this list of guys who have performed below expectations due to his draft position and pre-season performances. On a Cavaliers team that does not have many playmakers, Okoro does have a bit more pressure placed on him than some other rookies around the league who play on better teams. It is tough for him to get shots due to the ball being in Collin Sexton’s and Darious Garland’s hands. Okoro definitely has some improvements to make, but I am confident that he will find his niche in the NBA and start to make a larger impact for the Cavs.

Killian Hayes, Detroit Pistons

While Killian Hayes will likely miss the rest of his rookie season due to a hip injury, he will not need to undergo surgery which is great news for him and the Pistons. Hayes was playing well below his expectations in the games he did play in this season. He really wasn’t doing much of anything for the Pistons in the few games he did play. While the injury is a major setback in his development, he was starting to look like a clear cut bust even before the hip injury took him out.

The major concern surrounding the injury is that it is the same injury suffered by Isaiah Thomas (Celtics, Wizards, Kings Isaiah Thomas) which effectively ended his NBA career. While Hayes’ injury does not look to be as severe, it is still a major injury that will affect him and will require intensive physical therapy to fully recover.

Before going down with injury, Hayes was averaging 4.6 PPG. 1.1 RPG, and 3.6 APG. The assists are very encouraging being just below 4 per game. However, he will have to pick up his offensive production in terms of points if he is looking to become the point guard of the future in Detroit.

Deni Avdija, Washington Wizards

Deni Avdija was another guy I wrote about in my previous article about rookies who have struggled to acclimate to the NBA. Advija was highly sought after out of Israel and even compared to Luka Doncic. Those comparisons are not easy to live up to which makes his bust potential through the roof. If Deni does not put up similar stats to Deni in his rookie season, he will be labeled a bust which is not really fair. He has been pitted against long odds to become the player Luke Doncic is and that comparison may be a big detriment to the way his rookie season is evaluated.

Thus far, Deni is averaging 7.1 PPG, 4.1 RPG, and 2.1 APG. On a Washington team that is dominated by Bradley Beal and Russell Westbrook, it is tough for Deni to find his shots. He has been more of a spot-up 3-point shooter than anything throughout his rookie season which I do not think suits him best for his game. He needs to be slashing to the basket and being a guy who is constantly coming off screens to get himself open. When he does get the ball, I think he needs to become more aggressive and use his positional size to overpower his defenders. I think this aggression on offense will come along as his NBA career progresses, but for now, he has not lived up to the expectations that have been placed upon him which lands him on this list of rookies who may not meet their pre-draft forecast.