Friday Pick ’Em — Week 11 NFL Picks

Week 10 was entertaining to say the least. There were numerous games that could be considered ‘Bad Beats’ to gamblers. While my week 10 picks were marginally better than my week 9 picks, there is still plenty of room for improvement.

The Browns game would have gone in my favor if Nick Chubb got into the endzone instead of running out of bounds to seal the game. The strategic late game decision from Nick Chubb cost gamblers had fantasy managers and gamblers pulling their hair out.

On a positive note, my ‘Mortal Lock of the Week’ is now sitting at 1–2 after Tom Brady emasculated the poor Carolina defense… He did not throw the 5 touchdowns I predicted, but he did end up having a great game throwing for 341 YDS and 3 Touchdowns.

While week 10 came with its downfalls, it did provide a game for the ages. The ending to the Buffalo Bills VS Arizona Cardinals game was immaculate. The two teams were trading blows the entire game. Josh Allen led Buffalo down for what seemed like a game winning touchdown pass to Stefon Diggs. However, former #1 overall pick, Kyler Murray had other plans.

Kyler escaped a would-be sack that would have ended the game. He then heaved the football 50 yards into the endzone where his guy, Deandre Hopkins jumped up between 3 Buffalo defenders and came away with the game winning touchdown as time expired. A play that is in the running for Play of the Year up to this point… unless you are a Bills fan.

Here are my results from Week 10 of the NFL Season.

13 Games (No Thursday Night)

Point Spreads — 7/13 (54%)

Over/ Under — 5/13 (38%)

Both Spread & O/U — 3/13 (23%)

With week 11 on the horizon, here are my picks.

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Spreads and Over/ Under Numbers are Courtesy of ESPN as of Friday, 11/20/2020.

Early Games:

Eagles @ Browns

- Spread: CLE -3

- O/U: 47.5

This game looks to have some weather issues. As does every Browns home game this season. With the recent news of Myles Garrett on the Covid-19/ Reserve list, I like the Eagles to win a close, but ugly game.

Eagles +3 | Under 47.5

Falcons @ Saints

- Spread: NO -4

- O/U: 51.5

With Drew Brees out with his rib injury, we may get a dual quarterback scenario in New Orleans. Something I wrote about the Bears exploring when their quarterbacks are healthy. It looks like Jameis Winston and Taysom Hill will be under center for the Saints. With this in mind, I like the Falcons to keep this one close. Especially with the way their offense has looked since firing Dan Quinn.

Falcons +4 | Over 51.5

Bengals @ Washington

- Spread: WSH -1.5

- O/U: 47

Washington’s dominant young defense has been exposed the last few weeks.

Lions @ Panthers

- Spread: CAR -3

- O/U: 49

MIKE’S MORTAL LOCK OF THE WEEK

PANTHERS -3 | OVER 49

Steelers @ Jaguars

- Spread: PIT -10.5

- O/U: 46.5

Still undefeated, the Steelers roll into Jacksonville to face off against the Jaguars. Should be yet another victory for the Steelers on Sunday and they will remain undefeated.

Steelers -10.5 | Over 46.5

Titans @ Ravens

- Spread: BAL -5.5

- O/U: 49.5

Two inconsistent offenses that both sit at 6–3 coming into week 11. I think the spread should be more even than ESPN has it as of Friday prior to the game. It will probably get down to around 2.5–3 come Sunday morning. The way it is now, I like the Titans to cover, but the ravens to win by a field goal.

Titans +5.5 | Under 49.5

Patriots @ Texans

- Spread: NE -2

- O/U: 48.5

Texans look awful and the Patriots desperately need to string some wins together to stay in the playoff hunt in a tight AFC East. I think Belichick will have his work cut out for him on Sunday, but the Patriots should be able to pull out a victory in a tightly contested, low scoring game.

Patriots -2 | Under 48.5

Late Games:

Dolphins @ Broncos

- Spread: MIA -3.5

- O/U: 45

BOLD PREDICTION OF THE WEEK: Tua throws for 300+ Yards and 3 Pass Touchdowns. 1 Rushing Touchdown.

Behind Tua’s breakout performance, I got the Dolphins taking care of the Broncos on the road.

Dolphins -3.5 | Over 45

Jets @ Chargers

- Spread: LAC -9.5

- O/U: 46.5

This spread is way too high… especially for a game that involves the Chargers. A team that has mastered the art of losing by 1 point. The Jets have shown some fight the last few weeks and I think they stay close in this game.

Jets +9.5 | Under 46.5

Packers @ Colts

- Spread: IND -1.5

- O/U: 51.5

This should be a great game in the afternoon slate. Aaron Rodgers taking on a solid Indianapolis defense. The tightest spread on the day and rightfully so. I do not think the Colts offense has enough firepower to pull out the victory.

Packers +1.5 | Over 51.5

Cowboys @ Vikings

- Spread: MIN -7

- O/U: 48

The Vikings are riding a 4-game win streak and find themselves in the thick of the playoff hunt. Kirk Cousins finally got the Monday Night Football drought off his back and Minnesota is going to ride that momentum to another victory over the Cowboys.

Vikings -7 | Under 48

Sunday Night Football:

Chiefs @ Raiders

- Spread: KC -8

- O/U: 57

The Raiders handed the Chiefs their only loss of the season so far. These two teams sit atop the AFC West, so this is a marquee matchup on SNF. I cannot see any way Mahomes and Andy Reid lose to the Raiders again, but I do believe the Raiders cover the 8-point spread.

Raiders +8 | Over 57

Monday Night Football:

Rams @ Buccaneers

- Spread: TB -4

- O/U: 48.5

NFL fans should be in for a doozy with this Monday Night Football matchup. Rams sitting at 6–3 in a tight NFC West and the Bucs at 7–3 right behind the Saints in the NFC South. This is a massive game for the Rams as they need to keep pace with the Seahawks and Cardinals. Their defense has saved them all season long behind Aaron Donald and Jalen Ramsey. I think Tom Brady studies his film and finds a way to expose the Rams in route to a Tampa Bay victory.

Buccaneers -4 | Over 48.5

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