Friday Pick ‘Em — Week 13 NFL Picks

I don’t know how Vegas does it. Whoever oversees creating the spread and over/under for any game seems to be right on the nose each time. You think a team will win by 7 points when the spread is -6.5 and they wind up winning by a point… You think the over could never hit in a million years and it hits on a garbage time touchdown or two-point conversion. I am 4 weeks into making my NFL picks and I have so much more respect for successful gamblers and the people in charge of creating the spreads and over/under numbers.

Here were my week 12 results.

13 Games (Not including Thursday Night)

Point Spreads — 3/13 (23%)

Over/ Under — 4/13 (31%)

Both Spread & O/U — 1/13 (8%)

Yet another poor performance on my part. Mike’s Mortal Lock of the Week falls to 1–3. I am always shocked at how bad my picks end up when after I initially put the article out, I feel so confident. However, that brings us to week 13. Here are my predictions for this week. I think I will change up my strategy and go with the opposite of what I think will happen… See if that improves my results. Stay tuned!

Spreads and Over/ Under Numbers are Courtesy of ESPN as of Friday, 12/4/2020.

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Early Games:

Saints @ Falcons

- Spread: NO -3

- O/U: 45

New Orleans, even without Drew Brees have won two straight under Taysom Hill. The Falcons have been making a mid-season push after their lackluster start. My heart tells me this will be a close game as the line suggests.

Falcons +3 | Under 45

Lions @ Bears

- Spread: CHI -3

- O/U: 45

The Bears have notoriously dominated the Lions in recent history. The Lions are coming off the firing of their head coach and GM, so they might have a fire lit under them. However, I think the Bears do what they do best and that is give their fans hope with a win over Detroit.

Bears -3 | Under 45

Browns @ Titans

- Spread: TEN -5.5

- O/U: 54

The spread on this game seems a bit high. I would have expected a more even spread. However, the Titans are at home and Derrick Henry is rounding into his usual late season form. I don’t think the Browns have enough offense to get it done in Tennessee.

Titans -5.5 | Under 54

Bengals @ Dolphins

- Spread: MIA -11.5

- O/U: 42.5

When was the last time you saw the Dolphins favored by 10+ points?? Yeah, probably never. The Bengals are of course without Joe Burrow and the team has all but called it a season. I like the Dolphins to cover the 11.5 and win in a blowout.

Dolphins -11.5 | Over 42.5

Jaguars @ Vikings

- Spread: MIN -10

- O/U: 51

The Jaguars proved to be a tough out for the Packers a few weeks back. Under 3rd stringer, Mike Glennon, they played a decent game this past week. I think the Jags will keep this game close.

Jaguars +10 | Over 51

Raiders @ Jets

- Spread: LV -8.5

- O/U: 47

The Raiders seem to play down to their competition. They lost in blowout fashion last week to the Falcons, even though the Falcons are on the rise as of recent weeks. I like the Jets to hang tight in this one at home.

Jets +8.5 | Over 47

Colts @ Texans

- Spread: IND -3.5

- O/U: 51

Mike’s Mortal Lock of the week…

Colts -3.5 | Over 51

Afternoon Games:

Rams @ Cardinals

- Spread: LAR -2.5

- O/U: 48.5

This should play out to be one of the best games on Sunday. Two west coast style offenses going head to head. Overall, I like the Rams defense to contain Kyler Murray and the Cardinals.

LAR -2.5 | Under 48.5

Giants @ Seahawks

- Spread: SEA -10.5

- O/U: 47

The 1st Place New York Football Giants getting zero respect from odds makers. I think the Giants will be able to hang around in this game even without Daniel Jones as the Seahawks defense has remained poor all season long.

Giants +10.5 | Over 47

Eagles @ Packers

- Spread: GB -8.5

- O/U: 48

The Packers blew out the Bears last week on National TV. While the defense is easily exploitable, the offense seems to be clicking on ally cylinders. The Eagles do not have the offensive fire power to overcome the Packers in Lambeau.

Packers -8.5 | Under 48

Patriots @ Chargers

- Spread: EVEN

- O/U: 47.5

Cam Newton and the Patriots have underwhelmed all season long. I think this game will prove that he is not the answer for Belichick, and I would say that Newton gets benched this week. I like the Chargers to finally get a close victory.

Chargers Money line | Under 47.5

Sunday Night Football:

Broncos @ Chiefs

- Spread: KC -14

- O/U: 51

The largest spread of week 13 is justified. Especially if the Broncos are without a Quarterback. Kansas City will dominate on Sunday and it shouldn’t be close.

Chiefs -14 | Over 51

Monday Night Football:

Washington Football Team @ Steelers

- Spread: PIT -8

- O/U: 42

The Washington Football Team needs a win to keep pace in the NFC East. However, the Steelers remain undefeated and should remain that way after week 13. Even without the services of their all pro linebacker, Bud DuPree who tore his ACL on Wednesday afternoon against the Ravens.

Steelers -8 | Over 42

Bills @ 49ers

- Spread: EVEN

- O/U: 47.5

I am not quite sure how this line is EVEN… The 49ers are coming off a big win against the Rams, but they are still a bad football team. I think the Bills will mop the floor with San Francisco.

Bills Money Line | Over 47.5

Tuesday Night Football:

Cowboys @ Ravens

- Spread: BAL -7

- O/U: 44

This game will depend on Lamar Jackson’s availability. Who am I kidding? Even without Lamar, the Ravens will take care of business against the Cowboys at home.

Ravens -7 | Under 44

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